Post-recovery health domain scores among outpatients by SARS-CoV-2 testing status during the pre-Delta period (preprint)

Background: Symptoms of COVID-19 including fatigue and dyspnea, may persist for weeks to months after SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study compared self-reported disability among SARS-CoV-2-positive and negative persons with mild to moderate COVID-19-like illness who presented for outpatient care before widespread COVID-19 vaccination. Methods: Unvaccinated adults with COVID-19-like illness enrolled within 10 days of illness onset at three US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network sites were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by molecular assay. Enrollees completed an enrollment questionnaire and two follow-up surveys (7-24 days and 2-7 months after illness onset) online or by phone to assess illness characteristics and health status. The second follow-up survey included questions measuring global health, physical function, fatigue, and dyspnea. Scores in the four domains were compared by participants SARS-CoV-2 test results in univariate analysis and multivariable Gamma regression. Results: During September 22, 2020 - February 13, 2021, 2,712 eligible adults were enrolled, 1,541 completed the first follow-up survey, and 650 completed the second follow-up survey. SARS-CoV-2-positive participants were more likely to report fever at acute illness but were otherwise comparable to SARS-CoV-2-negative participants. At first follow-up, SARS-CoV-2-positive participants were less likely to have reported fully or mostly recovered from their illness compared to SARS-CoV-2-negative participants. At second follow-up, no differences by SARS-CoV-2 test results were detected in the four domains in the multivariable model. Conclusion: Self-reported disability was similar among outpatient SARS-CoV-2-positive and -negative adults 2-7 months after illness onset.

Work Attendance during Acute Respiratory Illness Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic, United States, 2018-2022 (preprint)

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and influenza viruses can be transmitted by infected persons who are pre-symptomatic or symptomatic. To assess impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on work attendance during illness, we analyzed prospectively collected data from persons with acute respiratory illness (ARI) enrolled in a multi-state study during 2018-2022. Persons with prior experience working from home were significantly less likely than those without this experience to work onsite on the day before illness and during the first 3 days of illness; the effect was more pronounced for the COVID-19 pandemic period than the pre-pandemic influenza seasons. Persons with influenza or COVID-19 were significantly less likely to work onsite than persons with other ARIs. Among persons for whom positive COVID-19 test results were available by the second or third day of illness, few worked onsite. Work-from-home policies may reduce the likelihood of workplace exposures to respiratory viruses.

Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection and COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against Outpatient Illness during Widespread Circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant, US Flu VE Network (preprint)

Background: We estimated combined protection conferred by prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination against COVID-19-associated acute respiratory illness (ARI). Methods: During SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) and Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant circulation between October 2021 and April 2022, prospectively enrolled adult patients with outpatient ARI had respiratory and filter paper blood specimens collected for SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing and serology. Dried blood spots were tested for immunoglobulin-G antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (NP) and spike protein receptor binding domain antigen using a validated multiplex bead assay. Evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection also included documented or self-reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. We used documented COVID-19 vaccination status to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) by multivariable logistic regression by prior infection status. Results: 455 (29%) of 1577 participants tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection at enrollment; 209 (46%) case-patients and 637 (57%) test-negative patients were NP seropositive, had documented previous laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, or self-reported prior infection. Among previously uninfected patients, three-dose VE was 97% (95% confidence interval [CI], 60%, 99%) against Delta, but not statistically significant against Omicron. Among previously infected patients, three-dose VE was 57% (CI, 20%, 76%) against Omicron; VE against Delta could not be estimated. Conclusions: Three mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses provided additional protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant-associated illness among previously infected participants.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Influenza A(H3N2)-Related Illness in the United States During the 2021–2022 Influenza Season (preprint)

Background In the United States, influenza activity during the 2021-2022 season was modest and sufficient enough to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness against lab-confirmed outpatient acute illness caused by predominant A(H3N2) viruses. Methods Between October 2021 and April 2022, research staff across 7 sites enrolled patients aged ≥6 months seeking outpatient care for acute respiratory illness with cough. Using a test-negative design, we assessed VE against influenza A(H3N2). Due to strong correlation between influenza and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, participants who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were excluded from vaccine effectiveness estimations. Estimates were adjusted for site, age, month of illness, race/ethnicity and general health status. Results Among 6,260 participants, 468 (7%) tested positive for influenza only, including 440 (94%) for A(H3N2). All 206 sequenced A(H3N2) viruses were characterized as belonging to genetic group 3C.2a1b subclade 2a.2, which has antigenic differences from the 2021–2022 season A(H3N2) vaccine component that belongs to clade 3C.2a1b subclade 2a.1. After excluding 1,948 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients, 4,312 patients were included in analyses of influenza VE; 2,463 (57%) were vaccinated against influenza. Effectiveness against A(H3N2) for all ages was 36% (95%CI, 20-49%) overall; 40% (95%CI, 24-53%) for those aged 6 months-49 years; and 10% (95%CI, -60-49%) for those aged ≥50 years. Conclusion Influenza vaccination in 2021–2022 provided protection against influenza A(H3N2)-related outpatient visits among young persons, with no measurable protection among older adults.

Intent among Parents to Vaccinate Children before Pediatric Vaccine Recommendations, Minnesota and Los Angeles County, California--May-September 2021 (preprint)

Objectives: This study assessed the associations between parent intent to have their child receive COVID-19 vaccination, and demographic factors and various child activities including attendance at in-person education or childcare. Methods: Persons undergoing COVID-19 testing residing in Minnesota and Los Angeles County, California with children aged <12 years completed anonymous internet-based surveys between May 10 and September 6, 2021 to assess factors associated with intention to vaccinate their child. Factors influencing parents’ decision to have their child attend in person school or childcare were examined. Estimated adjusted odds rations (AORs, 95% CI) were computed between parents’ intentions regarding children’s COVID-19 vaccination and participation in school and extra-curricular activities using multinomial logistic regression. Results: Compared to parents intending to vaccinate their children (n=4,686 [77.2%]), those undecided (n=874 [14.4%] or without intention to vaccinate (n=508 [8.4%]) tended to be younger, non-White, less educated and themselves not vaccinated against COVID-19. Their children more commonly participated in sports (aOR:1.51 1.17-1.95) and in-person faith or community activities (aOR:4.71 (3.62-6.11). They further indicated that additional information regarding vaccine safety and effectiveness would influence their decision. COVID-19 mitigation measures were the most common factors influencing parents’ decision to have their child attend in-person class or childcare. Conclusions: Several demographic and socioeconomic factors are associated with parents’ decision whether to vaccinate their <12-year-old children for COVID-19. Child participation in in-person activities was associated with parents’ intentions not to vaccinate. Tailored communications may be useful to inform parents’ decisions regarding safety and effectiveness of vaccination.

Effectiveness of 2 and 3 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines Doses against Omicron and Delta-Related Outpatient Illness among Adults, October 2021 - February 2022 (preprint)

Background: We estimated SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron-specific effectiveness of 2 and 3 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses in adults against symptomatic illness in US outpatient settings. Methods: Between October 1, 2021, and February 12, 2022, research staff consented and enrolled eligible participants who had fever, cough, or loss of taste or smell and sought outpatient medical care or clinical SARS-CoV-2 testing within 10 days of illness onset. Using the test-negative design, we compared the odds of receiving 2 or 3 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses among SARS-CoV-2 cases versus controls using logistic regression. Regression models were adjusted for study site, age, onset week, and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated as (1-adjusted odds ratio) x 100%. Results: Among 3847 participants included for analysis, 574 (32%) of 1775 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during the Delta predominant period and 1006 (56%) of 1794 participants tested positive during the Omicron predominant period. When Delta predominated, VE against symptomatic illness in outpatient settings was 63% (95% CI: 51% to 72%) among mRNA 2-dose recipients and 96% (95% CI: 93% to 98%) for 3-dose recipients. When Omicron predominated, VE was 21% (95% CI: -6% to 41%) among 2-dose recipients and 62% (95% CI: 48% to 72%) among 3-dose recipients. Conclusions: In this adult population, 3 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses provided substantial protection against symptomatic illness in outpatient settings when the Omicron variant became the predominant cause of COVID-19 in the U.S. These findings support the recommendation for a 3rd mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose.

Vaccine Effectiveness against COVID-19 among Symptomatic Persons Aged >=12 Years with Reported Contact with COVID-19 Cases, February - September 2021 (preprint)

Individuals in contact with persons with COVID-19 are at high risk of developing COVID-19, but protection offered by COVID-19 vaccines in the context of known exposure is unknown. Symptomatic outpatients reporting acute onset of COVID-19-like illness and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection were enrolled. Among 2,229 participants, 283/451 (63%) of those reporting contact and 331/1778 (19%) without known contact tested SARS-CoV-2 positive. Using the test-negative design, adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 71% (95% confidence interval, 49%-83%) among fully vaccinated participants reporting contact versus 80% (95% CI, 72%-86%) among those without. This study supports COVID-19 vaccination and highlights the importance of efforts to increase vaccination coverage.

Methods for Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence and Reported COVID-19 Cases in U.S. Children, August 2020 - May 2021 (preprint)

Background and ObjectivesCase-based surveillance of pediatric COVID-19 cases underestimates the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections among children and adolescents. Our objectives were to: 1) estimate monthly SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence among children aged 0-17 years and 2) calculate ratios of SARS-CoV-2 infections to reported COVID-19 cases among children and adolescents in 14 U.S. states. MethodsUsing data from commercial laboratory seroprevalence surveys, we estimated monthly SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence among children aged 0-17 years from August 2020 through May 2021. Seroprevalence estimates were based on SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid immunoassays from February to May 2021. We compared estimated numbers of children infected with SARS-CoV-2 by May 2021 to cumulative incidence of confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases from case-based surveillance, and calculated infection: case ratios by state and type of anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid immunoassay used for seroprevalence testing. ResultsAnalyses included 67,321 serum specimens tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among children in 14 U.S. states. Estimated ratios of SARS-CoV-2 infections to reported confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases among children and adolescents varied by state and type of immunoassay, ranging from 0.8-13.3 in May 2021. ConclusionsThrough May 2021, the majority of children in selected states did not have detectable SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibodies. Case-based surveillance underestimated the number of children infected with SARS-CoV-2, however the predicted extent of the underestimate varied by state, immunoassay, and over time. Continued monitoring of pediatric SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence should inform prevention and vaccination strategies.

mRNA Vaccine Effectiveness against COVID-19 among Symptomatic Outpatients Aged >=16 Years in the United States, February to May 2021 (preprint)

Evaluations of vaccine effectiveness (VE) are important to monitor as COVID-19 vaccines are introduced in the general population. Research staff enrolled symptomatic participants seeking outpatient medical care for COVID-19-like illness or SARS-CoV-2 testing from a multisite network. VE was evaluated using the test-negative design. Among 236 SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test-positive and 576 test-negative participants aged [≥]16 years, VE of mRNA vaccines against COVID-19 was 91% (95% CI: 83-95) for full vaccination and 75% (95% CI: 55-87) for partial vaccination. Vaccination was associated with prevention of most COVID-19 cases among people seeking outpatient medical care.

Estimated SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Children and Adolescents in Mississippi, May Through September 2020 (preprint)

Case based tracking of COVID-19 in children and adolescents may underestimate infection, and compared with adults there is little pediatric SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence data. To assess evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infections among children and adolescents in Mississippi, serologic testing for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 was conducted on a convenience sample of residual serum specimens collected for routine laboratory testing by an academic medical center laboratory during May 17-September 19, 2020. Seroprevalence by calendar month was standardized to the state population by race/ethnicity; cumulative numbers of infections were estimated by extrapolating seroprevalence to all those aged <18 years in Mississippi. Serum specimens from 1,603 individuals were tested; 175 (10.9%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Among 1,579 (98.5%) individuals for whom race/ethnicity was known, the number testing positive was 16 (23.2%) of 69 Hispanic individuals, 117 (13.0%) of 901 non-Hispanic Black individuals and 30 (5.3%) of 565 non-Hispanic White individuals. Population-weighted seroprevalence estimates among those aged <18 years increased from 2.6% in May to 16.9% in September 2020. Cumulative numbers of infections extrapolated from seroprevalence data, however, were estimated at 117,805 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 68,771 to 168,708), suggesting that cases in children and adolescents are much higher than what was reported to the Mississippi State Department of Health (9,044 cases during this period). Further data to appreciate the burden of pediatric disease to inform public health policy is urgently needed.

Clinical symptoms among ambulatory patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

We compared symptoms and characteristics of 4961 ambulatory patients with and without laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Findings indicate that clinical symptoms alone would be insufficient to distinguish between COVID-19 and other respiratory infections (e.g., influenza) and/or to evaluate the effects of preventive interventions (e.g., vaccinations).